When Lewis Hamilton received two grands prix within the area of three weeks in July, few would have thought his Mercedes swansong may finish so painfully.
Sure, there was an excellent fightback from sixteenth to fourth in Abu Dhabi, however solely a month beforehand he prompt {that a} torrid Sao Paulo GP may very well be his final race for the workforce. Then in Qatar his automobile after receiving his second penalty of one other chastening race. His all-red outfit at Yas Marina on Sunday prompt his eyes had been already on 2025.
has at all times been a person susceptible to emotional ups and downs and that’s comprehensible within the intense setting of Method One. It’s hardly ever tough to gauge his temper, notably so in latest months. Though there was the excessive of a , Hamilton has now accomplished his worst season in F1. There’ll certainly be reduction that it’s lastly over.
The numbers throughout many measures lay naked the size of the season’s trials. A end of seventh within the drivers’ championship is Hamilton’s lowest in 18 seasons in Method One. The final time he positioned as little as that in any full championship was within the Method Renault UK Winter Sequence in 2001, when he was 16 years previous.
Hamilton’s 223 factors is his lowest complete since his first season at in 2013, when he scored 189. That, although, was in a season of 19 grands prix and with out points-boosting dash races. factors scored per grand prix, 2024 is worse at 8.6 (together with dash races) per grand prix in comparison with 9.9 in 2013.
In his defence, the mercurial Mercedes W15 has been the fourth-fastest automobile on common this yr, solely sometimes in rivalry for victory. But delve into his file in opposition to the person in the identical equipment – the truest measure of any driver’s efficiency – and issues are little higher.
Earlier than 2024 Hamilton had solely been outscored by a team-mate 3 times in 16 seasons. George Russell has now managed that twice of their three years at Mercedes, taking 245 factors to 223 this time period. That equates to Hamilton scoring simply 91 per cent of his team-mate’s factors. Solely 2011 (84.1 per cent) and 2022 (87.3 per cent) had been worse by this metric.
His drop-off in efficiency has been starkest in qualifying. For thus lengthy his uncooked velocity was unmatched however his return this yr is scarcely plausible. Definitely he himself has struggled to consider it.
In dash and grand prix qualifying mixed he misplaced 24-6 to Russell. His common grand prix qualifying place of 8.5 is greater than three locations worse than Russell’s of 5.17. Issues had been higher in races, with a median ending place of 5.9 in comparison with Russell’s 5.1.
Nonetheless, solely as soon as earlier than had Hamilton notched up a worse qualifying file than a team-mate over a season, and by no means this badly. In reality, not even near this diploma. It is a important consider Hamilton being forward of Russell solely seven occasions within the 20 races they each completed.
This has baffled not solely observers but in addition Hamilton himself. He implied now and again in a back-handed and cryptic means that he and Russell had been maybe not in equal equipment. His common tone, too, grew to become more and more despairing and dejected, main him to confess in Qatar that he was “positively not quick any extra. Similar as each different qualifying… I’m simply sluggish.”
Put merely, Hamilton has been comprehensively crushed by Russell, in a means that no team-mate has managed earlier than. This leaves two massive questions over the seven-time champion. Firstly: why has this season been this unhealthy? Secondly: will this change into a pattern?
The primary query is the more durable to reply. Certainly, Hamilton can not – or won’t – supply an in depth clarification for his dramatic downturn. The underside line is that the automobile is to not his liking and that has perhaps been the case for many of the post-2021 ground-effect period, as Mercedes workforce principal Toto Wolff prompt in Qatar.
Mercedes’ performances have been up and down for the previous three seasons, hardly ever discovering a window the place the drivers are proud of the automobile. Since they grew to become team-mates it has at all times been Russell who has been more proficient at – or probably much less bothered by – coping with a tough machine. For no matter causes the automobile has too typically been unstable. That, in flip, results in Hamilton missing confidence in what the automobile does and a decline in efficiency.
This has been most uncovered in qualifying the place the automobile is most risky and the place a driver pushes the toughest. Hamilton has made small however important errors a number of occasions in qualifying. Las Vegas was the season in microcosm, when errors on each of his Q3 laps meant he didn’t set a consultant lap time while Russell took pole.
Hamilton ought to have fared higher this season
A driver of Hamilton’s high quality ought to have the ability to get greater than what he has this season. Maybe, too, his impending departure to Ferrari has led to a very pure phasing out of his involvement within the route and growth of the 2024 automobile because the season has progressed, or perhaps a discount of his personal funding within the workforce’s successes.
Will this proceed? 2022 was unhealthy however allow us to not overlook that in 2023 Hamilton was the higher Mercedes driver. Typically, although, a champion’s talents fade appreciably whereas they’re nonetheless competing. That is most acute when the motive force is profitable and stays at a aggressive workforce, because it makes a downturn clearer. Daniel Ricciardo’s transfer to McLaren ended with him wanting misplaced, however Sebastian Vettel’s remaining years at Ferrari are a related instance.
Vettel received 4 titles in a row for Pink Bull from 2010–2014 however started to make a wide range of errors at Ferrari. Regardless of main Mercedes’ Hamilton deep into 2017 and 2018, Vettel’s championship hopes evaporated, largely by his personal hand. In 2019, Vettel’s long-term team-mate Kimi Raikkonen was changed by a 20-year-old with only one season at Sauber to his identify. He beat Vettel of their first yr collectively after which extra roundly in 2020 in what was the German’s remaining season on the Scuderia. That man? Hamilton’s team-mate subsequent yr, Charles Leclerc.
May Leclerc hasten the top of Hamilton’s profession, simply as he did Vettel’s Maranello exit? If Hamilton can not discover the tempo and consistency he seems to have misplaced within the final yr then it’s doable, although you’d count on him to stay round till the brand new rules in 2026. Leclerc is a fantastic driver over one lap and has simply registered his strongest season in F1. He has additionally been Ferrari’s important man for half a decade.
None of that is to put in writing off Hamilton. Getting into a brand new setting at a resurgent Ferrari with a automobile that may very well be to his liking is strictly what he wants after three powerful seasons. Sunday in Abu Dhabi reminded us that he’s nonetheless able to these highs when the lights exit. It’s tough, although, to consider a time when his inventory in F1 has been decrease. Because it stands, you’d again the Monegasque to come back out on high at Ferrari subsequent yr.
