Lewis Hamilton’s transfer from Mercedes to Ferrari would not be described as “surprising” or “historic” if such transfers occurred yearly, and F1 is unlikely to see something prefer it anytime quickly. Not solely has probably the most profitable driver in historical past joined probably the most iconic group within the championship, however the official announcement additionally kicked off one of the intensive video games of musical chairs within the driver market.
Issues will not be fairly the identical in 2025, with most of the key gamers – together with Hamilton – having secured locations the place they count on to stay for the subsequent couple of seasons, protecting each the upcoming marketing campaign, which begins in Melbourne in a month’s time, and the primary yr beneath the revised rules in 2026.
All indications are that it will be a ready sport this time round. However there’s nonetheless loads of intrigue surrounding 2027.
Ready for Verstappen’s subsequent transfer
Max Verstappen, Purple Bull Racing RB20
Picture by: Purple Bull Content material Pool
For a couple of weeks final yr, it appeared as if F1 was about to expertise one other earthquake virtually instantly after the one brought on by Ferrari and Hamilton. With Toto Wolff’s glowing reward of Max Verstappen and Purple Bull’s inside civil struggle triggered by allegations in opposition to boss Christian Horner, many within the paddock believed it was extremely doubtless that the Dutchman would transfer to Mercedes as early as 2025, and the well-documented conferences between Wolff and Verstappen’s camp solely strengthened that notion.
It was solely in late summer time that the Mercedes boss lastly gave up hope of signing Verstappen, and now it seems to be as if it might by no means truly occur. It is price noting, nonetheless, that George Russell and Andrea Kimi Antonelli have solely been confirmed by the group for 2025, suggesting Wolff could also be conserving the door open for the Dutchman.
There’s one other door that appears to be opening for Verstappen (if there are any closed for him in any respect) at Aston Martin. Studies of a “billion-dollar supply” could also be false – and the group itself has categorically denied them – however that does not imply discussions have not taken place at some degree, even when it is personal conversations. Speak of Aston as a possible future vacation spot for Verstappen did not begin simply now; it gained traction a lot earlier, most notably following the announcement of Adrian Newey’s arrival on the group.
Realistically, although, a transfer for 2026 nonetheless appears extremely unlikely as Verstappen is not ready to gamble – at the least not but. It would not make a lot sense to decide to such a transfer with out seeing what a Newey-led group, mixed with Honda, can obtain in 2026.
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All the opposite high groups appear locked in for the foreseeable future. It is onerous to think about Hamilton and Charles Leclerc not remaining team-mates for the subsequent two seasons, and the identical goes for Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri. Neither groups nor drivers have any actual motive to vary.
Mercedes, in the meantime, appears to have sufficient confidence in Antonelli’s skills to not panic if he struggles in his rookie yr. With Russell already proving that he can win races when the automobile is fast sufficient, his younger Italian teammate would not essentially need to ship instantly.
What concerning the second Purple Bull seat?
Liam Lawson, Purple Bull Racing
Picture by: Purple Bull Content material Pool
The one seat that would probably change into accessible at any second is the second Purple Bull seat.
Liam Lawson has an actual problem forward of him. For somebody with simply 11 F1 begins, sharing a storage with Verstappen will not be straightforward. But when Lawson’s quick process is just to do higher than Sergio Perez has achieved for many of 2024, that is actually achievable. The larger query is whether or not the New Zealander can actually dwell as much as the expectations of turning into a high driver.
Purple Bull bosses have made mid-season driver modifications prior to now: Daniil Kvyat and Pierre Gasly had been despatched again to Faenza halfway via the 2016 and 2019 seasons respectively. However in addition to demonstrating an absence of endurance on the a part of Horner and Helmut Marko, it is also a reminder that they’ve expertise of coping with drivers who aren’t fairly prepared for a high group. This might work in Lawson’s favour, as he could also be given extra time – particularly as Marko and Horner do not seem too eager on selling Yuki Tsunoda to the primary group.
However one factor is for positive: it is virtually unattainable to foretell what’s going to occur if Lawson would not show to be a major improve on Perez.
Purple Bull might need a possible new star in Arvid Lindblad, who is because of spend a yr in Components 2, which might prolong Lawson’s Purple Bull tenure. If the Anglo-Swede earns an F1 promotion with Racing Bulls, it might encourage Horner and Marko to take a wait-and-see method, no matter Lawson’s outcomes.
A doable wild state of affairs (though nothing appears too wild for Purple Bull in F1) might see Lindblad promoted to F1 mid-season if he proves himself in F2. In that case, he might even be a contender for a Purple Bull Racing seat in 2026.
Tsunoda’s stalemate
Yuki Tsunoda, Visa Money App RB VCARB 01
Picture by: Purple Bull Content material Pool
Tsunoda’s place can finest be described as uncomfortable. As soon as once more ignored by Purple Bull, he is about to start his fifth season with the corporate’s second group and all indicators level to it being his final.
It might be flawed to rule out the opportunity of Tsunoda ultimately incomes a seat in the primary group, however for that to occur, Lawson would in all probability have to supply an virtually unprecedented degree of underperformance. Tsunoda’s complete F1 tenure with Purple Bull means that he will probably be thought to be their absolute final resort. And with the corporate ending its partnership with Honda, a possible promotion makes even much less sense.
At this level, there’s virtually nothing Tsunoda can do to impress additional. Beating Isack Hadjar will not do rather more than injury the younger Frenchman’s prospects – it actually will not enhance Tsunoda’s.
His long-term F1 future stays unsure. His identify was linked with each Sauber and Haas previous to his Purple Bull contract extension final summer time, however these choices have now disappeared. Esteban Ocon and Oliver Bearman will make up the Haas line-up for the subsequent few years, whereas Nico Hulkenberg and Gabriel Bortoleto are being positioned as Audi’s driver pairing for 2026.
With Honda turning into Aston Martin’s engine companion, a transfer there might be an choice for Tsunoda, however there aren’t any race seats accessible for the time being. So his almost definitely choice is to finish up as Aston’s reserve for 2026 with the hope of a future promotion.
There will probably be two new seats at Cadillac, however even when Tsunoda is taken into account one of many candidates, he is unlikely to be on the high of the brief record. That record at present contains Colton Herta, Valtteri Bottas and Perez, though surprises are all the time doable.
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Are there doable earthquakes?
Jack Doohan, Alpine A524
Picture by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Photographs
For now, the driving force market appears to be in ready mode. Most of the strikes made final yr had been already directed in direction of 2026, and solely when groups and drivers start to have extra readability concerning the pecking order within the new cycle will the subsequent spherical of musical chairs actually start.
One of many largest uncertainties within the coming months surrounds Jack Doohan. Whether or not the Australian can deal with the strain of Franco Colapinto’s presence at Alpine will decide not solely who begins 2026 with the Enstone group, but in addition who finishes 2025 in that seat.
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For now, the variety of modifications between 2025 and 2026 is prone to be minimal – however the driver market is quietly making ready for extra frenzy in simply over a yr’s time.
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