Usually talking, the NASCAR Cup Sequence is not any place for the younger and inexperienced.
Statistics present that Cup drivers are usually at their greatest of their 30s — even perhaps their late 30s. That stands in stark distinction to different sports activities, reminiscent of soccer, basketball or baseball, the place gamers are likely to peak of their mid-to-late 20s. One clarification is that the advantage of expertise is bigger, and lasts an extended time, relative to age-related reductions in bodily talents (reminiscent of response time and eyesight) in NASCAR than in stick-and-ball sports activities.
So when a driver nonetheless manages to excel at an early age, breaking via to the game‘s highest stage earlier than they‘re even legally sufficiently old to drink, it means one thing particular. For this reason all eyes might be on younger phenom Connor Zilisch on the Circuit of The Americas this week, because the North Carolina native will compete in his first Cup race at 18 years and 223 days previous in Sunday‘s EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
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Zilisch will develop into the youngest driver to make a Cup Sequence debut since Joey Logano on the in New Hampshire, on the tender age of 18 years and 114 days previous:
Logano represents some lofty firm for Zilisch as a result of his rise as a younger prodigy was virtually like nobody else‘s we‘ve ever seen in historical past. When Logano was simply 15, legendary driver Mark Martin raved about his expertise — “I’m completely, 100-percent constructive, undoubtedly that he might be one of many best that ever raced in NASCAR,” Martin stated, “There’s little question in my thoughts.” — and Randy LaJoie nicknamed him “sliced bread” when he was working across the Nationwide (now Xfinity) Sequence at age 18. Logano was such a particular prospect that Joe Gibbs instantly handed him the keys to the long-lasting No. 20 House Depot Toyota after Tony Stewart left to create Stewart-Haas Racing.
Zilisch has skilled a equally meteoric ascent. He grew to become the primary American to win the FIA Karting Academy Trophy at age 14 in 2020 — becoming a member of a roster of winners that features Method One driver Charles Leclerc — and he had a 2024 season for the ages, by way of accomplishments as a younger driver: He gained 15 whole races throughout seven completely different collection, together with two endurance races within the LMP2 class and the very first Xfinity Sequence race he entered, the , driving for Dale Earnhardt Jr. and JR Motorsports.
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Now, he’ll sit behind the wheel of the Trackhouse Racing No. 87 Chevrolet at COTA, a spot the place he already has a from the Truck Sequence a yr in the past. However earlier than we get too gassed up on Zilisch‘s potential to excel straight away, we do want to notice that the majority younger drivers take a short time to search out their footing on the Cup stage. The common non-Zilisch driver in our record above posted a Driver Ranking of simply 44.8 of their debut race, and just a few (Justin Haley, Trevor Bayne, Erik Jones) even got here near approaching the Cup Sequence common Driver Ranking of 70.0. Most struggled lots; even Logano posted a Driver Ranking of simply 31.8 in his maiden voyage, which stays to today his fifth-worst efficiency ever in a single race.
Zilisch might have a novel benefit on Sunday, nevertheless. For those who scan our record of younger debuts, you‘ll discover that not one of the others drove their first race at a street course like COTA. To seek out the subsequent youngest driver to make his Cup debut at a street course since 2005, now we have to go all the best way right down to Alex Kennedy, who was 21 years and 142 days previous when he debuted within the at Sonoma.
Kennedy was one thing of a road-course ringer, however he was nowhere close to the extent of prospect that Zilisch is, and his Cup profession . Zilisch, in contrast, has numerous expertise (for his age) at many various observe sorts, despite the fact that his most spectacular performances have come at street programs. It‘s additionally value mentioning that the one driver to win in his Cup debut up to now 62 years did it at a street course — of types — when Shane van Gisbergen the 2023 Grant Park 220 in Chicago. Granted, van Gisbergen was 34 years previous then and had accrued way more expertise and success driving touring vehicles than Zilisch has at this early part of his profession.
However even when Zilisch does battle in the identical method as different younger debut drivers, how lengthy would possibly it take for him to get rolling? Right here‘s a plot of Driver Scores over the primary 10 profession begins for each Cup Sequence driver who debuted earlier than turning 21 since 2005:
For a lot of drivers on this class, early progress was a bit sluggish to reach. The common Driver Ranking of the group improves some between race Nos. 1-4, then stalls some in race No. 5 earlier than leveling out a bit. Then, the typical drops once more at race No. 10. Among the names on our record have been capable of rise above, nevertheless: Trevor Bayne, Erik Jones, Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney (the latter a few second-generation Cup phenoms) have been above common by race No. 2 of their careers, Ty Gibbs and Reed Sorenson broke via by race No. 3, Carson Hocevar and William Byron did it by race No. 4, and Logano bought there by race No. 6. By 10 races in, Elliott, Byron and Blaney was persistently working above-average performances, in an indication of greatness to return.
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Usually, younger, hotshot drivers do have to attend much less time earlier than reaching main milestones. If we break down our pattern of drivers who debuted since 2005 by their age on the time of their first race, we discover that drivers (like Zilisch) who entered the Cup Sequence at 18 or 19 and finally scored a high 10 did it inside their first 9 profession races on common — considerably earlier than drivers who debuted at ages 20 or 21:
That very same sample holds for the typical variety of races it takes to realize a high 5 or a win for the primary time. It‘s not essentially stunning that phenoms would obtain success sooner than drivers who debuted at an older age — prospects like Logano and Zilisch are fast-tracked to the highest stage for a motive. However that‘s another excuse why the hype and expectations are usually so excessive for a lot of these younger drivers.
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What’s going to Zilisch do from right here? We will solely watch and wait. It‘s value remembering that even Logano hit loads of rising pains after his early “sliced bread” days: He beefed with what felt like each driver within the storage and misplaced his trip at Joe Gibbs Racing earlier than discovering redemption with Workforce Penske — the place he improved his status over time (simply don‘t ask Matt Kenseth about that) and finally grew to become a three-time Cup Sequence champion, dwelling as much as Martin‘s prophetic phrases about being one of many best ever. Comparable endurance will most likely be required for Zilisch. However for now, his journey is simply starting — and it‘s proper to be excited for what his future would possibly maintain.
