On the 2024 Miami Grand Prix Lando Norris captured his first System 1 victory, holding off Max Verstappen to take the checkered flag. However with Sergio Pérez ending fourth, and each Crimson Bull drivers ending on the rostrum within the F1 Dash race, Crimson Bull banked 44 factors over the weekend and left South Seaside atop the Constructors’ Championship standings.
A lot has modified since then.
Miami marked the final time throughout all of 2024 that Pérez left a race weekend with double-digit factors, scoring simply 49 factors over the remainder of the marketing campaign. Whereas Verstappen scored 301 factors over the rest of the 2024 season, en path to his fourth F1 Drivers’ Championship, it was not sufficient for Crimson Bull to carry on atop the standings, and so they tumbled to 3rd.
Shortly after the season, the axe fell. Pérez was out, and Liam Lawson was in.
In fact, if you’re studying this you in all probability know that Lawson has fared little higher over his first two races with Crimson Bull. He has but to attain a single level, and certified in P20 for each the F1 Dash race and the Grand Prix itself final weekend on the Chinese language Grand Prix. That signifies that courting again to the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix final season Verstappen has scored 337 of Crimson Bull’s 386 factors.
Whereas these outcomes had been sufficient for Verstappen to seize his fourth consecutive Drivers’ Championship, they value the workforce one other Constructors’ title. And with Crimson Bull presently sitting third within the standings, 42 factors behind McLaren after simply two race weekends, there’s already hypothesis that they may make a change.
Ought to Crimson Bull make a transfer? And if that’s the case, who will get that seat?
Let’s dive in.
Ought to Crimson Bull substitute Liam Lawson?
The second seat at Crimson Bull is commonly a matter of hypothesis, given the workforce’s latest historical past. Throughout Verstappen’s run on the workforce, courting again to 2016, he has had 5 completely different teammates: Daniel Ricciardo, Alex Albon, Pierre Gasly, Pérez, and now Lawson.
And he slid into the seat when the workforce parted methods with Daniil Kvyat.
The workforce isn’t identified for having an amazing quantity of endurance, and it’s that historic lack of endurance — coupled with the latest lack of outcomes as famous above — that has led to the hypothesis round Lawson’s tenure. Tales following the Chinese language Grand Prix indicated {that a} determination to switch Lawson for the Japanese Grand Prix had been all however made, and whereas Crimson Bull Crew Principal Christian Horner did his finest to dismiss these rumors as paddock “hypothesis,” he didn’t deny that Lawson was underneath stress.
Horner additionally conceded that for Crimson Bull to be aggressive in each the Drivers’ Championship (with Verstappen) and the Constructors’ race they want two drivers close to the entrance.
“The Constructors’ Championship is a really powerful ask, and we have to make important progress with the automobile so as to even problem for that. You need to have two automobiles scoring, that clearly harm us badly final 12 months,” mentioned Horner after the Chinese language Grand Prix.
“We’ve got to have two automobiles in there, and even to compete for the Drivers’, you’ve bought to have one other automobile in play. It’s vitally necessary for the workforce to make sure that we have now each drivers operating as near the entrance as we will.”
Nonetheless, a call to sack Lawson after simply two race weekends would stand out as a knee-jerk transfer even amidst Crimson Bull’s latest historical past. And there’s some important context that deserves consideration. In spite of everything, Lawson had by no means raced at both Albert Park or the Shanghai Worldwide Circuit. His RB21 suffered a mechanical situation throughout observe on the Australian Grand Prix, after which he was tasked with racing within the rain. The format of the Chinese language Grand Prix gave him only one hour of observe earlier than qualifying for the F1 Dash race, not a lot time to rise up to hurry in a automobile that’s even giving Verstappen some bother.
The upcoming race weekends — Japan, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia — are all circuits the place Lawson has raced earlier than.
Making a change proper now, with all that context, appears reasonably untimely.
Even with Crimson Bull’s latest historical past.
If Crimson Bull makes a change who ought to get the seat?
Let’s assume for the second that Crimson Bull decides two races is sufficient, the race for the Constructors’ title is getting late early, and they should make a transfer.
Who’s the best choice for that seat?
The apparent reply, and the driving force being linked with a change, is Yuki Tsunoda. Whereas Tsunoda has scored in simply the F1 Dash race this season, he has certified inside the highest ten in all three occasions this 12 months, and had been it not for some technique choices at Visa Money App Racing Bulls in each the Australian Grand Prix and the Chinese language Grand Prix — in addition to a sudden failure to his entrance wing in Shanghai — we is perhaps speaking about Tsunoda having scored in all three races this season.
His efficiency this 12 months, coupled with the subsequent cease on the circuit being his house race, has solely heightened the hypothesis concerning a change.
Many, myself included, believed Tsunoda was the proper choice for Crimson Bull when the workforce determined to switch Pérez within the first place. However having handed over Tsunoda final winter, Crimson Bull may belatedly give him a shot alongside Verstappen now.
Whereas Tsunoda mentioned final weekend that he would welcome such a transfer, others aren’t so certain. F1 analyst and former driver Raif Schumacher, talking on the Chinese language Grand Prix, warned Tsunoda off such a change.
“I wouldn’t advocate it to anybody,” Schumacher defined. “If I had been Tsunoda’s supervisor, I wouldn’t advise him to go there, as a result of for the time being, the Racing Bull is the higher automobile, and Tsunoda is doing very nicely with it. Transferring to Crimson Bull wouldn’t do him any favors.
“I additionally imagine that [Red Bull Technical Director Pierre] Waché isn’t essentially overwhelmed by the duty, however he doesn’t have it underneath management. This was meant to be a growth idea, however he already struggled with it final 12 months, and now with the brand new automobile, he nonetheless hasn’t figured it out. So I actually can’t think about why he would all of the sudden be capable to repair it now.”
In the mean time the VCARB02 is a extra constant automobile, with a much bigger working window, than the RB21. A transfer to Crimson Bull may put Tsunoda in a harder place.
However given that it’s the promotion he has been looking for, it might be onerous to say no.
Finally, Crimson Bull ought to present a bit of endurance right here. Having determined to slip Lawson into the seat subsequent to Verstappen, they should give this transfer, and the younger driver, time.
Whether or not historical past, and math, will see Crimson Bull give him that point, nevertheless, is a distinct query.
